It Is No Accident The Polls Are So Different.

Figures don’t lie but, liars do figure is one answer to the wide divergence in polls.

Most notable are the gaps between ABC, CBS and NBC media polls and mainline pollsters including Zogby. Rasmussen and Gallup with the former having Obama ahead by twice as much as the latter. The distort generally results from weighting tallies with more responses from people who are likely to vote for Democrats than is warranted. Because of the attention they give their own polls it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy not to mention cutting into a candidate’s fund raising, endorsement, overall support and supress voter turnout.

It sets up the most damning words in politics, “You can’t win.”

“Errors” in media polling have rarely benefited a Republican candidate. Recent notable examples include: Dukakis numbers, the Perot numbers, there was always this presumption that the Republican was going to lose. Not just that the Democrat would win, but that the Republican was going to lose. There was a news report that concluded polls showed Kerry leading Bush 53 percent to 43 percent in 15 swing states.

Exit polls a voter who had just cast their ballot telling a total stranger who they had just voted for in the last election all favored John Kerry. Plus a lot of exit polling is done in urban areas, which is heavily Democratic. But by announcing exit polling early on election day later voters can be influenced. ABC, CBS, NBC were admonished for predicting wins before the polls closed on the West coast In 2004 those networks refrained from early predicting lest it bias later voters.

To be sure there are overt manipulations in the questionnaires and interviews too, like asking questions designed to get positive response such as: do you support or oppose improving the quality of public education? Do you support or oppose universal healthcare? Do you support or oppose protecting the environment? The idea is that reinforcing “Yes” if applied in polling, marketing, fund raising, etc., leads to more agreement on following questions, and it works.

In the last 20-years polling has moved from the “jump” page into the headlines. Broadcast “news” outlets like ABC’s Good Morning America routinely announces its polls reflecting the network’s bias making news editorial. A few counties now ban announcing polling results within 14-days of an election citing abuses.

Psychologists call it the “herd instinct”, i.e., when one animal bolts and heads off others follow without knowing the reason.

At any rate today, October 27, 2008 the polls are: a Rasmussen poll released at 6AM EST has the presidential race at 51% Obama versus 46% McCain a dramatic tightening from the eight point lead of only two days ago. Zogby has the contest 49.9% to 45.1% a shift from a ten point Obama lead five days ago. GallupGallup reports 17% say they have already voted and as of last Wednesday the numbers of McCain and Obama supporters who say they wil vote early are roughly equal. puts the race 50% to 45%.