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Richard Cochrane is trained in chemistry and metallurgy but is far more interested and practiced as a political and fund raising consultant, writer and amateur historian. He grew up in a Navy family and with his two younger brothers carried on its 500+ year tradition of naval service to Great Britain and the USA then enjoyed a career with one of the largest advertising and public relations agencies working with numerous Fortune 500 companies and many of America's premier educational institutions. He maintains friendships and acquaintanceships around the world. He lives in Santa Barbara, California.

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Republicans Top Democrats on Generic Congressional Ballot

April 28th, 2009 • Richard Cochrane
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 gop-washIn a bitter irony on the day U. S. Senator Arlen Specter (D) Pa. switched parties becoming the 60th Senate Democrat. Republicans took the  lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. This is  just the second time in more than five years of daily or weekly tracking this has happened.

 A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 41% would vote for their district’s Republican candidate while 38% would choose the Democrat. Thirty-one percent (31%) of conservative Democrats said they would vote for their district’s Republican candidate.

 Overall, the GOP gained two points this week, while the Democrats lost a point in support. Still, it’s important to note that the GOP’s improved position comes primarily from falling Democratic support. Democrats are currently at their lowest level of support in the past year while Republicans are at the high water mark.

 Over the past year, Democratic support has ranged from a low of 38% to a high of 50%. In that same time period, Republicans have been preferred by 34% to 41% of voters nationwide.

 During calendar 2009, Democratic support has ranged from 38% to 42% and the Republican range has been from 35% to 41%.

 Democrats began the year holding a six- or seven-point lead over the GOP for the first several weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February and the Republicans actually took a two-point lead for a single week in the middle of March. Since then, the results have ranged from dead even to a four point lead for the Democrats. Men now favor the GOP by a 45% to 34% margin. Women prefer the Democrats by a 42% to 38% margin.

 Other recent polling shows 50% believe the high reelection rates result from election rules that are “rigged to benefit members of Congress.”

 

An analysis by Scott Rasmussen looks at the Beltway Republicans and concludes that they are on a continuing path to irrelevance.

 Americans are evenly divided as to whether or not the government should create a health insurance company to compete with private health insurance companies.

Whether this shift in generic approval is the harbinger of things to come is unlikely because of a broader trend. In California. for instance, the Republican party has skidded into the ditch of irrelevance.

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