Iran Squashes Protest, Challenges Obama As Obama Pulls Back In Iraq: Perfect Storm.

Ahmadinejad vowed Saturday to make the U.S. regret its criticism of Iran’s postelection crackdown and said the “mask has been removed” from the Obama administration’s efforts to improve relations.

Ahmadinejad - with his internal opponents virtually silenced as I predicted they would be - all but dared Obama to keep calling for an end to repression of demonstrators who claim the hardline leader stole re-election through massive fraud.

Ahmadinejad has no authority to direct major policy decisions on his own - a power that rests with the non-elected theocracy. But his comments often reflect the thinking of the ruling establishment.

The cleric-led regime now appears to have quashed a protest movement that brought tens of thousands to the streets - not the numbers needed or hoped for by opponents –of Tehran and other cities in the greatest challenge to its authority in 30 years. There have been no significant demonstrations in days, and the most significant signs of dissent are the cries of “God is great!” echoing from the rooftops, a technique dating to the days of protest against the U.S.-backed shah before the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Days of relatively restrained talk from both Washington and Tehran appear to be returning to a familiar pattern of condemnation and recrimination despite Obama’s stated desire to move away from mutual hostility. Negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program already moving in glacial serenity will slow.  

With opponent protest squashed and Obama flapping around like a flag on a broken lanyard Iran is in the catbird seat, and each day brings it closer to a nuclkear weapon and the means to deliver it.

Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council said. “I have a hard time seeing any real engagement taking place for at least four to six months.” Mr. Parsi is an optiomist and in any case Iran could have a functioning nucler weapon next year.

Obama acknowledged Friday that any direct dialogue or diplomacy with Iran is going to be affected by the events of the last several weeks.”

“I would suggest that Mr. Ahmadinejad think carefully about the obligations he owes to his own people,” Obama added.

Ahmadinejad appeared self-assured and even invigorated Saturday in the face of the previous day’s personal challenge from Obama.

“We are surprised at Mr. Obama,” Ahmadinejad said. “Didn’t he say that he was after change? He is demanding an apology from Obama.

Some experts say it is uncertain that Ahmadinejad and his most powerful backer, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would emerge from the unrest as strong as before. Many speculated that the fight between hard-liners and reformists had moved behind the scenes and would add more uncertainty to U.S. dealings with the already opaque regime. Press reports are “angry and afraid,” for fear of government reprisal.

Militia have been raiding homes and beating residents in an attempt to stop the chanting, Human Rights Watch says, accusing authorities of seizing satellite dishes to prevent citizens from seeing news broadcast from overseas. Iranian officials have blamed the British Broadcasting Corp., Voice of America and other news channels for fomenting unrest on behalf of Western governments.

Inexplicably Obama pulled funding for Voice of America broadcast into Iran.

“While most of the world’s attention is focused on the beatings in the streets of Iran during the day, the Basijis are carrying out brutal raids on people’s apartments during the night,” said Sarah Leah Whitson, the rights group’s Middle East director.

Italy has granted visas to Iranians seeking to flee the violence and wants the European Union to adopt a common policy on how to assist them, the Italian foreign minister said.

Italy and other members of the Group of Eight industrialized nations called Friday for an end to the violence in Iran and urged the authorities to find a peaceful solution.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hasan Qashqavi was quoted by the official news agency IRNA as accusing the G-8 of “interventionist and hasty remarks.”

In Sweden, Foreign Ministry spokesman Andre Mkandawire said the Swedish ambassador was summoned by Iran’s foreign ministry Friday after clashes between demonstrators and Iranian Embassy officials outside Stockholm.

Demonstrators broke into the embassy, climbing through shattered windows and injuring one embassy worker, police said.

Today Iranian in the US and sympathizers plan to demonstrate in Los Angeles; hopefully peacefully.

Casting a long shadow is Tuesday’s June 30, 2009 deadline for the withdrawal of U. S. troops from frontline operation in Iraq. How much and if Iran and/or al Qaeda will ramp up violence to disrupt that remains to be seen. Iraq says it is ready but not many have much confidence in that.